I think it’s a serious question, and one that needs an answer. Is the GOP rapidly descending into irrelevancy, or is this just the normal rise and fall of the political tide? After all, both liberals and conservatives have thought that the other side was done before. In fact, doom for either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party has been predicted numerous times for each.
But is something different this time? After all, people from my generation — those that just voted (or could have voted) in their first election, and those for whom 2016 will be the first — don’t exactly rush to register as Republicans. Although a large number of people my age seem to be stupidly apathetic, those that are not take a dim view of Republican mandates on your personal life, like the person you can marry or women’s health.
I don’t think that the Republican Party will survive another decade if it doesn’t change to suit the times. Sure, it’ll still be around, and it will be very powerful. However, depending on how the next four years go, I think the demographic shifts in the United States will ensure that something libertarian rises up — aside from certain niche groups, people are tiring of the morality debates. Over the last ten years, support for equality and other typically progressive causes such as marijuana legalization has risen dramatically. Republicans claim that they lost the election by not talking enough about the economy, and that’s precisely it.
The central demographic for the Republican Party doesn’t have a real opinion on the economy, because they don’t know anything other than what Fox tells them about Obama’s spending. They’re just parrots. What they really like about the Republican Party is the divisiveness. Republicans use fear and emotion to recruit votes, and if you’re looking to run a campaign based on the economy, it can be harder to use fear to do it successfully (although they are really trying hard to find a way).
People are tired of Republican hate.
In ten years, I think we will see the Libertarian Party rise up to compete with the Democratic Party, or perhaps the Republican Party will become even more libertarian than certain parts of it already are. If so, at least the left will win the battles surrounding equal rights for everyone.
Another interesting possibility is that the Libertarian Party will gain power as Republicans lose, creating, for a period of time, a three-party system where the Democratic Party retains the most power, with the other two vying for position in second and third.
Opinions?
Wanted to take the time to tell you a good article. Have you ever heard of the ‘whigs’? If not, thats because they self-destructed much like the republican party is doing now. Not sure if share your thoughts on libertarians but would like to see the ‘green’ party make a better showing.
I would too actually… that is after we squash the Republican greed.. it’s time the US moved forward with the rest of the world….
What I see is the Right burning bridges with the demographics that are going to become larger as time goes on, and by not softening or changing their stances now, they’re burning their bridges for multiple generations. I originally thought the GOP would fracture into Social and Fiscal Conservative groups, but now it’s becoming more complicated than that. I think that the GOP will fracture into two parties, if not more, but since they have totally alienated moderates, they will be fighting each other for a continually smaller chunk of voters for a good couple of decades. Eventually at least one of the two splinter groups will gain more power, but they will have to combine with the other fissure groups in order to maintain some power to compete with the Democrats.
It would be terrific, if, indeed, it was truly Libertarian, and stay out of peoples bedrooms and stopped trying to force their brand of religion on everyone else. It needs to respect women as individuals who are in control of their own bodies and their own destinies. We don’t need to be preached to.
Being much older, I can tell you that we are on unprecidented ground right now. I have seen both Republican and Decmocratic ups and downs but there has never been the amount of pure hatred expressed so explicitly and openly of the opposition as we have in the past decade. Neither have we seen the crisis governing model .. period. In the past, the debates were carried out in the elections. Whoever won the election was given a wide berth and his policies given deference with the opposition getting into bills whatever of their policies they could get the party in power to agree to. Never have we seen the obsfucation and obstruction that we have seen since Obama was elected in 2008. We now basically have a party who has gerrymandered a majority in the House and who must keep those in the far right base that is the core of the gerrymandered districts happy. That is the only way they will be reelected. So we have a very small majority of far right constituents basically determining the policies of the country. That would not be such a disaster except these people care only about their 1% of the nation’s income that is theirs, hence their ideology is so whacked that they will stand on it and let the rest of the country fall apart. Until we have some control over the states in how they determine their districts and how votes are distributed, we will not see an end to the brinksmanship form of government coming from the Republican Party. I do not see a third party filling in the gap because basically, the policies of the Democrats are very popular nationwide which will keep people voting for them. I don’t see either the Repubican Party or the Democrat Party encouraging a third entry. The fate of the Republicans will be in how desparately they can rig the voting. I think the mid terms will see a lot of state controlled states reversing the Republican led governments and perhaps even taking back control of the House, which would stop a lot of the gridlock. But this is all unfamiliar territory. It is a crap shoot.